The Policy Challenge

While we talk about making strategic choices, the budget process relies on inertia and anecdote
Very limited data on:
What programs are funded
What each costs
What programs accomplish
How they compare

The Solution: Bring Evidence Into the Process
Target funds using rigorous evidence
Stop funding ineffective programs
Ensure programs are implemented effectively
Achieve dramatic improvements without increased spending
The cost-benefit analysis approach

Long-standing approach to policy analysis
Widely used in the private sector
Increasingly used by states

Goal: Assess whether a program generates enough benefits to justify funding

States are increasing use of CBA

Step 1: Conduct a Program Inventory
Identify the programs currently provided in New Hampshire and the population that is served by those programs
Identify the current funding for programs
Assess whether the programs are evidence-based
Determine if programs are being implemented according to design

Step 1: Inventory Programs
Step 2: Identify Program Costs
Identify the costs of serving persons in each program
Include direct and indirect costs
Calculate marginal costs for each program

Step 2: Identify Costs
Step 3: Predict and Monetize Outcomes
Costs per felony conviction
Convictions avoided per participant
Other benefits throughout system

Victimizations avoided per participant

Taxpayer outcomes
Avoided cost of delivery of services and programs
Societal outcomes
Avoided costs incurred of crime victims
Tangible costs (e.g., lost wages, health care)
Intangible costs (e.g., pain and suffering)
Estimates based on medical records, insurance claims, and court judgments
Meta-analysis of Functional Family Therapy
Cost-Benefit of Functional Family Therapy
Cost-benefit of Nurse Family Partnership
Step 4: Compare Costs and Benefits Across Program Portfolio
Results First Work in States
Washington State’ s Long-term Success
15+ years of using approach to help steer budget decisions
Have achieved better outcomes at lower costs
Juvenile Crime Reduction Benefits
Participation in Results First
What are Results First states doing?
enacted legislation incorporating Results First into their policy making process

New Mexico
Legislative Finance Committee leads initiative, expanding into agencies
Implemented Results First in all available policy areas
Innovative Cost of Doing Nothing report found $360M in recidivism-related corrections costs over next 15 years
Used Results First model to target $17M for evidence-based programming in early education and criminal justice

Housed in the Departments of Corrections and Human Rights
Found state’ s domestic violence treatment program was ineffective
Replacing with new program to achieve higher ROI
Used model to analyze sentencing reform proposals
New York
Used model to develop Governor’ s public safety budget
Referenced in 2013 State of the State Address
Restructuring $11.4M in Alternatives to Incarceration funds to prioritize cost-effective programs
$5M allocated through competitive grant process incorporating cost-benefit analyses

Legislative PEER Committee implementing model
Very strong legislative leadership support
Using approach to re-energize performance budgeting system
Currently assessing criminal justice and education programs
Legislative Joint Fiscal Office began initiative

Legislatively established the Criminal Justice Consensus Cost-Benefit Working Group to expand the Vermont Results First model

Used analysis to cut funding to inefficient correctional education program
Results First can be used to analyze many policy areas
What does it take to become a Results First state?

The Role of Partner States

Secure leadership support
Appoint a policy work group
Establish a staff work group with project manager
Collaborate with Results First to strengthen the model and build a learning community of states
Services provided by Results First
Goal -Dramatically improve outcomes by:

Fund programs that are proven to work (and cut those that don’ t)

Programs must be properly implemented
Must target the right people

Compare outcomes to predictions
Require new programs to prove success

This approach should drive the system

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